2014³â °æÁ¦¿¡ °üÇÑ ±Ã±ÝÇÑ 5°¡Áö..5 Questions on the Economy
by ³ëÁ¤ÈÆ | 14.01.22 11:52



By Jung Hoon Roh ÒÆïáýº

      

 

 

¿¬ÃÊ¿¡ ¿ù½ºÆ®¸´Àú³Î(WSJ)¿¡ °æÁ¦°ü·Ã ´º½º°¡ ´«±æÀ» ²ø¾ú´Ù. ¼ÖÁ÷È÷ °ú°Å¿£ °æÁ¦¿¡ µÐ°¨ÇÑ ÆíÀ̾úÁö¸¸ ´ëÇÐÀ» Á¹¾÷ÇÏ°í ³ª¼­ ¼¼ÆÄ¿¡µµ Á¶±Ý ½Ã´Þ¸®°í³ª´Ï ´Þ¶óÁø°Ô »ç½ÇÀÌ´Ù. ±×·¯°íº¸´Ï ´ëÇÐ Àü°øµµ Business°¡ ¾Æ´Ï¾ú³ª. ^^

 

 

¾Æ·¡ Á¤º¸¸¦ ´º½º·Î µ¶Àںеé°ú °øÀ¯ÇÏ°íÀÚ ÇÑ´Ù. ¼­Å÷ ¹ø¿ªÀ» °í·ÁÇØ ¿ø¹®À» ÇÔ²² ½Ç¾ú´Ù. ±×°Ô ÆíÇÑ ºÐµéµµ ºÐ¸í °è½Ç °ÍÀÌ´Ù.

 

 

 


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Economic forecasters are counting on 2014 to be a breakout year. But whether the economy finally moves past its sluggish growth will rest on several forces playing out differently than they have since the recovery began. Some of the key questions:

 

 

°æÁ¦¸¦ Àü¸ÁÇÏ´Â »ç¶÷µéÀº 2014³âÀÌ ¡®ºê·¹ÀÌÅ© ¾Æ¿ô(µ¹ÆÄ)¡¯ÀÇ ÇØ°¡ µÉ °ÍÀ¸·Î ±â´ëÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª °æÁ¦ÀÇ ¼ºÀå¿©ºÎ´Â Áö³­ °æÁ¦È¸º¹±â ÀÌÈÄ¿¡ ºÒ°¡ÇÇÇÏ°Ô ±â´í ¿©·¯ ¼¼·Â¿¡ µÐÇØÁø ¼ºÀå·Â¿¡¼­ °ú¿¬ ºüÁ®³ª¿Ã ¼ö Àִ°¡ÀÇ ¿©ºÎ¿¡ ´Þ·Á ÀÖ´Ù.

 

 

1. Will businesses finally shed their caution?

1. ±â¾÷µéÀº ¸¶Ä§³» Á¶½É½º·± ÀÚ¼¼¿¡¼­ ¹þ¾î³¯±î?

 

 

A devastating financial crisis led business owners and corporate executives to be especially wary about adding staff or investing in new equipment. Some worry about risks from Washington or overseas. Others are seeing consumers maintain their slow-but-steady spending, providing little incentive to deploy their cash stockpiles.

 

 

ÃÖ¾ÇÀÇ ±ÝÀ¶À§±â¿¡ »ç¾÷°¡µé°ú ±â¾÷ ÀÓ¿øµéÀº »õ·Î¿î Á÷¿øÀ» Ãß°¡Çϰųª ¼³ºñ ÅõÀÚ¿¡ ÁÖ·ÂÇØ¿Ô´Ù. ÀϺδ ¿ö½ÌÅÏ(¿¬¹æÁ¤ºÎ) ¶Ç´Â ÇØ¿Ü¿¡¼­ ¿À´Â À§Ç輺¿¡ ´ëÇØ ¿ì·ÁÇÑ´Ù. ±âŸ´Â ¼ÒºñÀÚµéÀÇ ´À¸®Áö¸¸ ²ÙÁØÇÑ ÁöÃâÀ» µ½±â À§ÇØ Çö±Ý ºñÃà·®À» È°¿ëÇÏ´Â ½ÄÀÇ ÀÛÀº Àμ¾Æ¼ºê¸¦ Á¦°øÇÑ´Ù.

 

 

As a result, business investment in key areas such as equipment has been historically weak for a U.S. recovery. A slowly improving jobs picture and rising household wealth could spark a virtuous cycle of stronger consumer spending, increased business confidence and rising investment. If it doesn¡¯t, the year could be another letdown.

 

 

°á°úÀûÀ¸·Î, ¼³ºñ¿Í °°Àº ÁÖ¿ä ºÐ¾ß¿¡ °üÇÑ »ç¾÷ ÅõÀÚ´Â ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ °æ±âȸº¹À» ÇöÀúÈ÷ ´ÊÃß°Ô ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¼­¼­È÷ °³¼±µÇ´Â ÀÏÀÚ¸® âÃâ°ú °¡°è ¼ÒµæÀº ¼ÒºñÀÚ ÁöÃâÀ» È°¼ºÈ­ ½Ãų ¼ö ÀÖ°í ºñÁî´Ï½ºÀÇ Àڽۨ°ú ÅõÀÚ »ó½ÂÀ» ¸¸µé¾î ³¾ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. ±×·¸Áö ¾ÊÀ» °æ¿ì, ¿ÃÇØ´Â ¶Ç ´Ù¸¥ ȯ¸êÀÇ ÇÑÇØ°¡ µÉÁöµµ ¸ð¸¥´Ù.

 

 

2 Will Washington's tentative truce continue?

2 ¿ö½ÌÅÏÀÇ ÀÓ½ÃÈÞÀüÀº °è¼ÓµÉ±î?

 

 

The December budget deal was hardly the kind of confidence-boosting agreement Washington has been debating for years. But at least it hit the pause button on the serial brinkmanship that threatened to derail the recovery in the past three years.

 

 

Áö³­ÇØ 12¿ù ¿¹»êÇù»óÀº Áö³­ ¸î ³â µ¿¾È ÁøÇàµÈ ³íÀï¿¡ È­´äÇÏÁö ¸øÇÑ ½ÇÆÐÀÛÀ̾ú´Ù. ÇÏÁö¸¸ ÃÖ¼ÒÇÑ Áö³­ 3³âµ¿¾È ȸº¹À̶ó´Â ¿­Â÷°¡ Å»¼±ÇÒ ¼öµµ ÀÖ´Â ÀÏ·ÃÀÇ º­¶û³¡ Á¤Ã¥¿¡ ±ÞÁ¦µ¿À» °É¾î »ç¶÷µé ¸ñ¼ûÀº ºÙ¿©µÐ ¼ÀÀÌ´Ù.

 

 

A combination of tax increases and spending cuts in 2013 shaved about 1.5 percentage points off annual economic growth, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Many forecasters expect the fiscal drag in 2014 to be one-third that amount, or less. ¡°You¡¯ll have more political certainty this year,¡± said Gregory Daco, a U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

 

 

±¹È¸ ¿¹»êó¿¡ µû¸£¸é 2013³â ¼¼±Ý Àλó°ú ÁöÃ⠻谨ÀÇ Á¶ÇÕÀº 1.5% Á¤µµÀÇ ¿¬°£ °æÁ¦ ¼ºÀå·üÀ» ¶³¾î¶ß·È´Ù. ´Ù¼öÀÇ °æÁ¦Àü¹®°¡µéÀº 2014³â¿¡ ´ÚÄ¥ ÀçÁ¤Àû Àå¾Ö¸¦ 3ºÐÀÇ 1 ÀÌÇÏ·Î ¿¹»óÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¡°´ç½ÅÀº ¿ÃÇØ Á»´õ ³ªÀº Á¤Ä¡Àû È®½Ç¼ºÀ» °®°Ô µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù¡±´Â °ÍÀº Oxford´ëÇÐ °æÁ¦ÇÐÀÚ Gregory Daco ±³¼öÀÇ ¸»ÀÌ´Ù.

 

 

However, some lawmakers already are discussing a standoff again in late February over raising the federal borrowing limit. ¡°You can never count on policy makers to not shoot themselves in the foot,¡± Mr. Daco said.

 

 

±×·¯³ª ÀϺΠÀÇ¿øµéÀº ÀÌ¹Ì ¿ÃÇØ 2¿ùÀÇ ±³Âø»óŸ¦ ´ëºñÇØ Â÷ÀÔÇѵµ¸¦ ¿Ã¸®´Â °ÍÀ» ³íÀÇÁß¿¡ ÀÖ´Ù. ¡°´ç½ÅÀÌ ¶Ç Á¤Ã¥ ÀÔ¾ÈÀڵ鿡°Ô µÚÅë¼ö¸¦ ¸Â°í ½ÍÁö ¾Ê´Ù¸é ±×µéÀ» Àý´ë ¹ÏÀ¸¸é ¾ÈµÈ´Ù¡±°í Mr. Daco´Â ¸»Çß´Ù.

 

 

 



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3 Will the Fed's path out of bond buying get bumpy?

3 ¿¬¹æÁ¤ºÎÀÇ Ã¤±Ç ¸Å¼ö ½Ãµµ¿¡ Á¦µ¿ÀÌ °É¸±±î?

 

 

The Federal Reserve last month laid out a timetable to slow the pace of its bond purchases throughout the year. The central bank, which had been soaking up $85 billion a month in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities since late 2012, plans to reduce the pace of purchases by $10 billion at each meeting until it is no longer buying bonds at year-end.

 

 

Áö³­´Þ ¿¬¹æÁغñÀºÇàÀº Àϳ⳻³» ä±Ç ¸ÅÀÔÀÇ ¼Óµµ¸¦ ´ÊÃß±â À§ÇÑ ÀÛ¾÷À» ÇØ ¿Ô´Ù. 2012³â¸»ºÎÅÍ 850¾ï ´Þ·¯ »ó´çÀÇ ±¹Ã¤ ¹× ÁÖÅÃÀú´çÁõ±ÇÀ» »¡¾ÆµéÀÎ Áß¾ÓÀºÇàÀº ¿¬¸»¿¡ ä±ÇÀ» ´õ ÀÌ»ó ±¸ÀÔÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀ» ¸ñÀûÀ¸·Î ¾ÕÀ¸·Î ¸Å ȸÀÇ ¶§¸¶´Ù 100¾ï ´Þ·¯±îÁö ±¸ÀÔÆøÀ» ÁÙ¿©³ª°¥ °èȹ¿¡ ÀÖ´Ù.

 

 

Few of the Fed¡¯s forecasts have proceeded according to plan during the course of the sharp economic downturn and choppy recovery, a fact that Fed officials now openly acknowledge. ¡°We have been disappointed in the pace of growth, and we don¡¯t fully understand why,¡± Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said at his final news conference last month.

 

 

¿¬¹æÁ¤ºÎ³» ¸î¸îÀÇ °æÁ¦Àü¹®°¡µéÀº ±Þ°ÝÇÑ °æ±â ħü¿Í ºÒ¾ÈÁ¤ÇÑ È¸º¹Áß¿¡ ¼¼¿î °èȹ¿¡ ¸ÂÃç ÁøÇàÇß´Ù. ÀÌ·± »ç½ÇÀ» Á¤ºÎ´Â °ø°³ÀûÀ¸·Î ÀÎÁ¤Çß´Ù. Áö³­´Þ ÅðÀÓÇÑ ¿¬¹æÁغñÀºÇàÀÇ Ben Bernanke ÀÇÀåÀÌ ¸¶Áö¸· ȸÀÇ¿¡¼­ ¡°¿ì¸®´Â °æÁ¦¼ºÀå ¼Óµµ¿¡ ½Ç¸ÁÇß´Ù. ¿ì¸®´Â ±× ÀÌÀ¯¸¦ ¿ÏÀüÈ÷ ÀÌÇØÇÏÁö ¸øÇÑ´Ù¡±¶ó°í ¸»Çß´Ù.

 

 


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The central bank last year spent more than six months signaling its intent to wean the economy off a third round of bond buying, and the prospect upset markets at just about every turn. Now it¡¯s only in the first stage of that process. Even if the tapering is smooth, the Fed could spend much of the year grappling with the prospect of raising its interest-rate target as early as 2015.

 

 

Áö³­ÇØ Áß¾ÓÀºÇàÀº 6°³¿ùÀÌ ³Ñµµ·Ï 3¹ø° ä±Ç¸Å¼ö¸¦ ¸·À¸·Á´Â ½Ãµµ¿Í ´Ù¹æ¸é¿¡¼­ ÀÖÀ» ½ÃÀåħü¸¦ Àü¸ÁÇØ¿Ô´Ù. ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ ½Ãµµ´Â ÇöÀç ¸· ù ¹ø° ´Ü°è¿¡ µé¾î¼­ ÀÖ´Ù. °èȹÀÌ ¹°È帣µí ÁøÇàµÇ°í ÀÖ´ÙÇϳª Á¤ºÎ´Â ¾ÕÀ¸·Î 2015³âÃʱîÁö ±Ý¸®¸ñÇ¥¸¦ ÀλóÇϴµ¥ ¿ÃÇØÀÇ ´ëºÎºÐÀ» º¸³»°Ô µÉ ¼öµµ ÀÖ´Ù.

 

 

4 Will housing adjust easily to higher interest rates?

4 ÁÖÅÃÀº ³ôÀº ±Ý¸®¿¡ ½±°Ô ¸ÂÃâ ¼ö ÀÖÀ»±î?

 

 

The housing sector started last year on a high note. It ended the year facing mounting worries about higher interest rates, supply constraints, tight credit and a host of other problems.

 

 

Áö³­ÇØ ÁÖÅúι®Àº ³ôÀº ÆÄ¿­À½À» º¸¿´´Ù. µû¶ó¼­ ³ôÀº ±Ý¸®, °ø±Þ Á¦ÇÑ, ½Å¿ë °æ»ö ¹× ±âŸ ¹®Á¦µé¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¿ì·Á°¡ Á¾ÇÕÀûÀ¸·Î ³ªÅ¸³µ´Ù.

 

 

Sales of previously owned homes have slipped every month since July, according to the National Association of Realtors. That coincides with the surge in borrowing costs across the economy amid the Fed¡¯s signals about its bond buying program.

 

 

Àü¹ÌºÎµ¿»êÇùȸ¿¡ µû¸£¸é ¼ÒÀ¯ÁÖÅÃÆǸŴ 7¿ùºÎÅÍ ¸Å´Þ Ç϶ôÇß´Ù. ÀÌ°ÍÀº Á¤ºÎÀÇ Ã¤±Ç±¸ÀÔÇÁ·Î±×·¥ ½ÅÈ£°¡¿îµ¥ °æÁ¦¸¦ ÅëÇÑ Â÷ÀÔ ±ÞÁõ°ú µ¿½Ã¿¡ ÀϾ´Ù.

 

 

Lawrence Yun, the trade group¡¯s chief economist, expects the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to hit 5.5% at year-end, up from 4.5% late last year and 3.5% in the first half of 2013. That is a sharp run-up in a short period of time, one that could harm affordability and spook even more buyers.

 

 

¹«¿ª±×·ìÀÇ ¼ö¼®°æÁ¦ÇÐÀÚ Lawrence YunÀº ¿Ã ¿¬¸»¿£ Æò±Õ 30³â °íÁ¤±Ý¸® ¸ð±âÁö°¡ 5.5%t°¡ µÉ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹»óÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. Áö³­Çظ» 4.5%¿Í 2013³â »ó¹Ý±âÀÇ 3.5%º¸´Ù ³ôÀº ¼öÄ¡´Ù. À̴ ªÀº ½Ã°£ÀÇ ±Þ°ÝÇÑ °¡°Ý »ó½Â, Áï ¼ÒºñÀÚµéÀÌ °¨´çÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ºñ¿ëÀ» ¿ôµ¹°Ô µÅ ºÎ´ãÀ» ÁÖ°Ô µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.

 

 

5 Will the rest of the world cooperate?

5 ¹Ì±¹ ¹Û ¼¼°è´Â Çù·ÂÇÒ±î?

 

 

Once the U.S. economic recovery started in 2009, other parts of the world began to struggle in their own ways.

 

 

¹Ì±¹ °æ±âȸº¹ÀÌ 2009³â¿¡ ½ÃÀÛµÆÀ» ¶§ ¼¼°è ´Ù¸¥ Áö¿ªÀº Àú¸¶´ÙÀÇ ¹æ½ÄÀ¸·Î ÅõÀïÀÇ ±æ¿¡ µé¾î¼¹´Ù.

 

 

Europe fell into a debt crisis. Japan faced a natural disaster. Emerging markets, once the bright spots on the global landscape, lost their glow. Political crises from Italy to Egypt to Thailand raised the prospect of more global unrest.

 

 

À¯·´Àº ÀçÁ¤À§±â¿¡ ºüÁ³´Ù. ÀϺ»Àº ÀÚ¿¬ÀçÇØ¿¡ Á÷¸éÇß´Ù. ÇѶ§ ±Û·Î¹ú ½ÃÀå¿¡ ¹Ù¶÷À» ºÒ·¯ ÀÏÀ¸Å² ½ÅÈï ½ÃÀåÀº ÇöÀç ±× ÈûÀ» ÀÒ¾ú´Ù. ű¹, ÀÌÁýÆ®, ÀÌÅ»¸®¾Æ¿¡ ¿Â Á¤Ä¡ À§±â´Â ´õ ¸¹Àº ¼¼°è ºÒ¾ÈÀÇ °¡´É¼ºÀ» Á¦±âÇß´Ù.

 

 

The world got by in 2013 with fewer confidence-shaking moments than in prior years, but the vulnerabilities haven¡¯t disappeared. ¡°It¡¯s not a great story anywhere, though it¡¯s more hopeful than it has been,¡± said Jerry Webman, chief economist at OppenheimerFunds.

 

 

¼¼°è´Â 2013³â ±× Àü³âµµ¿¡ ºñÇØ ºñ±³Àû ÀûÀº Ÿ°ÝÀ» ¹Þ¾ÒÁö¸¸ ÇÙ½ÉÀûÀÎ Ãë¾àÁ¡Àº »ç¶óÁöÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù. ¿ÀÆæÇÏÀÌ¸Ó ÆݵåÀÇ ¼ö¼®°æÁ¦ÇÐÀÚ, Jerry WebmanÀº ¡°¾îµð¿¡¼­µµ ÁÁÀº ¼Ò½ÄÀº µé¸®Áö ¾Ê¾ÒÁö¸¸ ¿ì¸®°¡ Áö³»¿Â ½Ã°£µéº¸´Ù´Â Èñ¸ÁÀûÀÌ´Ù¡±¶ó°í ¸»Çß´Ù.

 

 

The relatively stable global outlook must continue if 2014 is to be the kind of economic year Americans have been hoping for throughout the recovery.

 

 

2014³âÀÌ ¹Ì±¹ÀεéÀÌ Èñ¸ÁÇÏ´Â ÀÌ»óÀûÀÎ °æÁ¦ º¹±¸ÀÇ ÇØ°¡ µÉ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù¸é »ó´ëÀûÀ¸·Î ¾ÈÁ¤ÀûÀÎ ±Û·Î¹ú Àü¸ÁÀ» °è¼ÓÇØ ³ª¾Æ°¡¾ß ÇÒ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.

 

 

 

 

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